Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) forecasting system picks the Blue Jays to finish in fourth place this season one game behind the Rays and Red Sox which leaves them out of the playoff picture. This news certainly irked some fans around here including myself. I mean, how dare they shower Toronto fans with cold water after the off-season we’ve had!
Now DJF wrote a nice explanation for this rather crabby prediction and pinpoints some areas where PECOTA is rather bearish on certain players. If you want to read more about what considerations are taken into account to help calculate PECOTA, you can look here where they also highlight the variance in the 2009 projections and actual standings.
Is 85 wins likely for the Jays? Continue Reading→